Commentary and analyses on terrorism, intelligence, security, and military and political affairs in the Middle East.
Israel gives qualfied okay to Obama’s interim deal with Iran
Israel’s Binyamin Netanyahu and Ehud Barak have decided to stand back for Barack Obama to put his interim deal with Iran to the test, debkafile’s sources report. They are going along with it despite reservations after receiving assurances from the White House that Iranian violations would result in the immediate termination of negotiations and bring military action forward as the sole remaining option for stopping a nuclear Iran. Saturday, debkafile exclusively revealed the eight-point interim deal the US put before Iran.
Hizballah Is Now in Line to Attack Israel and So Thwart a Strike on Iran
The Iranian leadership is torn by a serious debate over a preemptive strike on Israel. Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei fears it will jeopardize his credibility and upend his direct confidential dialogue with Barack Obama. He faces tough opposition from Iran’s war faction.
US Troops on the Move – Just in Case Nuclear Diplomacy Breaks down
US reservists are put on standby for transfer to the Middle East at 36 hours notice as the Obama administration gets set for a potential midsummer war if Iran stalls on a nuclear accord or fails to deliver on its commitments – or Israel goes to war on the Islamic Republic.
Saudi King Abdullah Is Rebuffed by Oman and Qatar Rulers
The Obama administration has invested major diplomatic and military efforts into persuading the Persian Gulf emirs to unite in a federation and mutual defense treaty according to two alternative Saudi blueprints – a NATO or a EU style pact. But those efforts were met with extreme reluctance.
Clashing UAE, Israeli and Iranian Military Maneuvers
Iran was rattled by the United Arab Emirates air force war games over the Strait of Hormuz in conjunction with the US and France and Israel’s maneuvers in the Mediterranean. Its rejoinder was a maneuver of its own to practice offensive special operations raids for the first time.
A Digest of DEBKAfile Round-the-Clock Exclusives in Week Ending May 18, 2012
A Digest of debkafile Round-the-Clock Exclusives in Week Ending May 18, 2012
Iran to expand 20-pc uranium enrichment at Fordo with new centrifuges
Israel’s Defense Minister Ehud Barak warned Thursday 17, that a nuclear Iran would change the whole Middle East landscape and “we must do something to block” what he called “a catastrophe.” The impending agreement would permit Iran “to deceive the world” and continuing building a nuclear bomb. Western diplomatic sources disclose that Iran has moved this process forward by starting in mid-negotiations to instal new centrifuge cascadesat Fordo to double or triple near-weapons grade enriched uranium production.
Iran drills first large-scale paratroop drops for offensive action
Special operations units of the Iranian army and Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) Tuesday, May 14, began a two-day practice of offensive tactics, for the first time dropping large-scale forces from the air deep behind enemy lines. The many war games Iran has conducted until now focused on defenses of strategic and nuclear locations and repelling invaders. It began on the same day as the US-led multination nation special forces exercise in Jordan and was staged deliberately near the Afghan border.
New US battle strategy against Iran in US movements and Israeli drill
A new US battle strategy against Iran (ASB) hinges on tightly coordinated air, land, sea, undersea, space and cyberspace capabilities for defeating closure of the (Hormuz) strait, cyber attack, mines, cruise and ballistic missiles. US and Israeli Air Forces, Navies and their special forcesare operating on the ABS concept afteran Israeli drill which ended in its navy setting up a dense defensive line against enemy sea assault by unconventional weapons. Monday, a large US amphibiousmarine vessel anchored in Jedda.
Tripoli clashes after direct orders from Assad to Lebanese army
Bashar Assad has stepped in directly to halt the covert war his Western and Arab foes are waging against his regimethrough Lebanon. debkafile’s military sources disclose he is now sending Lebanese army commanders direct orders for cutting arms, money, fighters and medical supplies to the rebels, especially in Homs. Last week, Lebanese Chief of Staff Gen. Jean Kahwagi was given a crude ultimatum: Take care of the Syrian rebels’ backers in Tripoli, or else the Syrian army will enter Lebanon and do the job.
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